They don't, really. I think the average is three years now, and it only drops down that low because people are people and they tend to break and/or lose things.

Apple will forever and always position the new iPhone as the best iPhone they've ever made. And they're pretty much correct on that.

But the target audience for the 15 is the person who owns an X or 11 or maybe a 12. Not a 14.

Dropping the 13.... some people really like that size. And loudly clamor for one when it's not available. But Apple keeps dropping that size, mostly, I think, because everyone who says they want one never actually buys one, and the sales numbers show that.

Actually, the two issues are probably related. You may want an iPhone mini... and say so... but you're not at the right point in the upgrade cycle when it's released, so you put it off. And then Apple drops it due to lack of sales.

Besides Andrew. You know you're going to buy a 15 in three months so you can do the "changed my mind" article, followed by the "changed-my-mind-about-chainging-my-mind" article.... ;)